Total Area - 20,731,202 km2
Range Area - 3,132,238 km2 (15%)
Protected Range - 30 %
Information Quality Index (IQI) - 0.45
This is the first African Elephant Status Report in 25 years which has reported a continental decline in elephant numbers. The decline is largely caused by the surge in poaching for ivory that began around 2006 (CITES, 2016), the worst that Africa has experienced since the 1970s and 1980s. Underlying conservation issues, particularly loss of habitat and increasing human elephant conflict, are still of critical significance but are receiving less attention because of the poaching crisis.
Systematic information on elephant poaching comes from the programme for Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE). This was established at the 10th Conference of the parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) in Harare in 1997 and subsequently modified in accordance with the provisions in Resolution 10.10 (Rev. CoP16) on Trade in elephant specimens (CITES Secretariat, 2013). MIKE covers sites in 30 of the 37 African elephant range states, and 13 Asian elephant range states. In Africa, 60 MIKE sites together hold an estimated 30 to 40% of the African elephant population (CITES Secretariat, 2016). MIKE relies on ranger-based monitoring of elephant carcasses. When an elephant carcass is located, rangers record, if possible, the cause of death, allowing the calculation of the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE). The dataset used for the 2016 analysis of MIKE data consisted of 14,606 records of elephant carcasses found in 54 MIKE sites in 29 African elephant range states from 2003 to 2015 (CITES Secretariat, 2016). PIKE levels above 0.5 (i.e. where half of dead elephants found are deemed to have been illegally killed) are considered to be unsustainable. Continental poaching levels have remained above this sustainability threshold since 2010 (Figure A). Further details are provided in the regional summaries.
There has been much discussion as to whether one or two species of elephant should be recognized, with the forest elephant being acknowledged as a distinct species from the savanna elephant. The general opinion of taxonomists, particularly those with genetic expertise, is that two species should be recognized. However, this is complicated by lack of exact knowledge about where each species occurs and the presence of an unknown number of hybrid populations in areas around the fringe of the Congo Basin forests, including in Uganda (Mondol et al., 2015). Because of these uncertainties the African elephant is treated as a single species in this report. The use of the terms savanna and forest elephant is relevant at national and site level, and the terms are used in this report. Savanna elephants are found predominantly in Eastern and Southern Africa, while forest elephants occur primarily in the Congo Basin of Central Africa. In West Africa elephants live in both forest and savanna habitats; it is believed, however, that they are genetically forest elephants (Roca et al., 2015).
The African Elephant Action Plan (AEAP) was developed to respond to the needs of African elephant range states for the conservation and management of Africa’s elephants. It was adopted in March 2010 at the 15th meeting of the Conference of the parties to CITES (African elephant range states, 2010). The AEAP was developed over two years through a consultative process, facilitated by the IUCN SSC African Elephant Specialist Group and the CITES Secretariat, and is a consensus document fully owned and managed by the African elephant range states. It is intended to provide an overarching framework and a clear statement of shared objectives, to be achieved through activities implemented by the range states and their partners. The African Elephant Fund and the African Elephant Fund Steering Committee were established in accordance with CITES Decision 14.79 (Rev. CoP15) in 2010 to support and facilitate implementation of the action plan. As a follow on to the AEAP development, national and regional level planning exercises are meant to highlight those actions urgently in need of funding if Africa’s elephants are to be protected from the threats they face. The development of regional and national level plans, including those developed under the Elephant Protection Initiative, is described in the regional and national summaries.
All African elephant range states, except for South Sudan, are parties to CITES. Most range states have been parties to CITES for well over 20 years, except Angola, which joined the Convention in 2013. The elephant populations of four countries are in Appendix II of CITES: Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe (CITES, 2015a). International trade in elephants and elephant specimens is allowed from these four countries under restricted conditions that differ slightly between the four countries, and there is currently a moratorium on international ivory sales until 2017. Elephant populations from the other range states are listed in Appendix I of CITES, and the trade in elephants and elephant specimens regulated accordingly.
In addition to the listing of the African elephant in the CITES Appendices, there is a CITES resolution governing trade in elephant specimens. Resolution Conf. 10.10 (Rev. CoP16) outlines a number of important provisions and regulations regarding trade in elephants and elephant specimens, as well as important reporting and monitoring responsibilities, such as the submission of data to the CITES monitoring systems MIKE and the Elephant Trade Information System (ETIS) (CITES Conference of the parties, 2013b). CITES Decision 14.78 (Rev. CoP16) calls on the IUCN SSC’s African and Asian Elephant Specialist Groups, MIKE, ETIS and the United Nations Environment Programme – World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) to prepare a joint analysis on the conservation status and management of live elephants, illegal killing, ivory trafficking and trade. The CITES Standing Committee has recommended that this decision be enshrined in Resolution Conf. 10.10 (Rev CoP16) at the CoP17 in September 2016 (CITES, 2016).
ETIS measures and records the levels and trends of illegal trade in ivory and other elephant specimens. The most recent analysis, produced for the 66th meeting of the CITES Standing Committee, demonstrates a trend in illegal ivory trade activity (Figure B) that parallels the illegal killing of elephants reported by MIKE since 2008, with a possible leveling and even a decline in recent years (CITES Secretariat, 2016; Milliken et al., 2016).
Recent analyses of ivory seizure data prepared by ETIS for CITES have identified those countries of most concern in relation to the illegal ivory trade (CITES Secretariat, 2012; Milliken et al., 2013, 2016). A number of countries were tasked by the CITES Standing Committee to prepare, implement and report on National Ivory Action Plans, a set of specific, time bound activities related to the control of poaching and the illegal ivory trade and compliance with Resolution Conf. 10.10 Rev. CoP16. The CITES Secretariat has established a website devoted to tracking progress on National Ivory Action Plans, available at cites.org/niaps (CITES, n.d.-a).
Since 2007, there have been a number of destructions of ivory stockpiles, either by burning or crushing (Table 2). Three additional countries were known to have carried out stock destructions, Japan (2.8 tonnes in 2008) and unknown amounts in India and Portugal in 2014.
The nine range states listed above have submitted elephant hunting trophy quotas to CITES and these are shown below as the equivalent number of animals taken on quota derived from tusks and other trophies. In 2015 the United States imposed a suspension on permits for the import of African elephant trophies from Zimbabwe and Tanzania (USFWS, 2015a, 2015b) and the European Union imposed a suspension on the permits for the import of African elephant trophies from Mozambique (EU, 2015)
The estimated number of elephants in areas surveyed in the last ten years in Africa is 415,428 ± 20,111 at the time of the last survey for each area. There may be an additional 117,127to 135,384 elephants in areas not systematically surveyed. Together, this estimate and guess apply to 1,932,732 km², which is 62% of the estimated known and possible elephant range, an increase from 51% in the previous report. There remains an additional 38% of range for which no elephant population estimates are available, although it is likely that average elephant densities are much lower than in the surveyed areas. The overall reliability of estimates has increased considerably, with estimates from systematic surveys now accounting for 37% of total range, versus 29% in the previous report. The overall quality of information, as measured by the Information Quality Index (IQI), has not changed.
This report presents more than 275 new or updated estimates for elephant populations across Africa, with over 180 of these arising from systematic surveys. All aerial survey data from the Great Elephant Census, a Paul G. Allen project, and data from dung counts in Central Africa carried out primarily by the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) were submitted through the AED for inclusion in this report.
Holding over 70% of the estimated elephants in Africa (56% of estimated and guessed elephants), Southern Africa has by far the largest number of elephants in any of the four regions. Botswana continues to have the largest national population. Eastern Africa comes second, with 20% of estimated elephants (18% of estimated and guessed elephants), while Central Africa is an even more distant third (6%) for estimated elephants. There is a high proportion of guesses for Central Africa, giving a total of 23% of estimated and guessed elephants. This is because most Central African surveys are dung counts, and many of these are recorded as guesses, since dung decay studies have not been done on site. West Africa continues to hold the smallest regional population with under 3% of both categories.
Between the AESR 2007 and this report, there has been a reduction of 118,000 in estimates for populations across Africa where comparable surveys have been carried out. However some populations have been surveyed for the first time, particularly in Central Africa, and this has led to an increase of approximately 18,000 in the ‘new population’ category. The result is that the current total estimated number of elephants from surveys has decreased by a smaller figure of about 93,000 since the AESR 2007. Continued uncertainties about the number of elephants in Botswana have a substantial potential impact on the continental population, because Botswana holds the single largest population but national estimates since 2006 have differed greatly, by as much as 80,000 elephants. In order to better understand the current status of this critically important population, which extends into neighbouring countries, a well-coordinated survey of the entire cross-border population of Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe remains a very high priority.
The estimated number of elephants from surveys and guesses has decreased since the AESR 2007 by 104 to 114,000.
Elephants are found in 37 range states in sub-Saharan Africa. There has been one change since the AESR 2007, as South Sudan became independent from Sudan and all of former Sudan’s confirmed elephant populations occurred in the south. It is still possible that small numbers of elephants either visit seasonally or reside in Dinder National Park in Sudan (Mohammad, pers. comm., 2016). There have been no national level extinctions since the AESR 2007, although the populations in Guinea Bissau and Senegal are so small that they are in imminent danger of extinction. It was widely reported in 2009 that elephants had gone extinct in Sierra Leone as a result of a single poaching incident (AFP, 2009) but this was not correct and there are still at least four small populations surviving in the country.
The distribution of elephants varies considerably across the four regions from small, fragmented populations in West Africa to large, virtually undisturbed tracts of elephant range in Central and Southern Africa, with a mixture in Eastern Africa. Detailed knowledge of the status of elephant distribution is scanty in many parts of the continent, particularly in Central Africa and in countries that are emerging from armed conflict, such as Angola, Sudan and Sierra Leone.
The total area of known and possible elephant range at the continental level is currently estimated at slightly over 3.1 million km². This is hardly changed since the previous report. This is because most of the changes since the AESR 2007 were minor modifications rather than large scale changes. Improved knowledge of elephant distribution is reflected by the proportion of range categorized as known, which has increased from 63% to 67%. Significant range expansion has occurred in Botswana and Kenya.
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