Country Area - 582,650 km²
Range Area - 130,725 km² (22%)
Protected Range - 27%
Information Quality Index (IQI) - 0.59
CITES Appendix - I
Listing Year - 1990
There was an upsurge in poaching between 2008 and 2012, particularly in Laikipia-Samburu and Tsavo. This had reduced by 2014-15 due to improved law enforcement, and increased penalties for illegal killing of endangered species, including elephants laid out in a new Wildlife Conservation and Management Act (Republic of Kenya, 2013).
In 2012, Kenya adopted the Conservation and Management Strategy for the Elephant in Kenya, 2012-2021 (Litoroh et al., 2012).
In analyses of seizure data in ETIS, prepared for CITES, Kenya was identified as a country with a worrying involvement in illegal ivory trade (CITES Secretariat, 2012; Milliken et al., 2013, 2016). Kenya was requested by the CITES Standing Committee, at its 65th meeting, to prepare a National Ivory Action Plan, which was submitted to CITES in 2015, and is now in the process of being implemented (CITES, n.d.-a).
In July 2011, Kenya destroyed approximately 5 tonnes of ivory from its national stockpile (BBC News, 2011). In February 2015, Kenya destroyed approximately 15 tonnes of ivory from its national stockpile (BBC News, 2015a) and in April 2016 destroyed a further 105 tonnes of ivory (Gettleman, 2016).
The estimated number of elephants in areas surveyed in the last ten years in Kenya is 22,809 at the time of the last survey for each area. There may be an additional 8,023 to 8,090 elephants in areas not systematically surveyed. These guesses likely represent a minimum number, and actual numbers could be higher than those reported. Together, this estimate and guess apply to 104,711 km², which is 80% of the estimated known and possible elephant range. There remains an additional 20% of the estimated range for which no elephant population estimates are available.
Since the AESR 2007, a decrease of about 1,200 elephants has been recorded in population estimates from surveys and an increase of about 1,500-2,400 in guesses. This is largely because of the degrading of data quality from old forest surveys, rather than any real population changes. There was an increase of about 1,100 elephants in areas where repeat surveys had been carried out.
Tsavo National Park and its surrounding areas have the largest elephant population in Kenya. Total and sample aerial counts were carried out nearly simultaneously in 2014 as part of the Great Elephant Census. The aerial sample count gave an estimate of 14,087 ± 21% (Chase et al., 2014b) compared to the aerial total count of 11,158 (Kyale et al., 2014). Although sample counts generally give more accurate results than total counts, the total count has been used for consistency with previous estimates. This replaces an estimate from an aerial total count in 2005 of 10,397 elephants (Omondi & Bitok, 2005). An aerial total count was also carried out in 2011, which gave an estimate of 12,182 (Ngene et al., 2013b).
At the end of 2015, there were 1,656 individually registered elephants in the Amboseli ecosystem (Fishlock, pers. comm., 2016) compared to 1,417 at the end of 2005 (Poole, pers. comm., 2006). This apparent stability conceals substantial drought mortality in 2009 followed by rapid growth – there has been very little poaching. An aerial total count in 2013 gave an estimate of 1,281 (Kenana et al., 2013) and aerial sample count in 2014 gave an estimate of 1,736 ± 77% (Chase et al., 2014b).
There has been an increase in the number of elephants seen in the Magadi area (which includes part of the Nguruman Hills) together with an expansion of range. Four hundred and forty nine elephants were counted in 2013 in an aerial total count (Kenana et al., 2013). This replaces a guess of 120-150 for the Ngurumans from 2005 (Mwathe et al., 2006).
An aerial total count of the Masai Mara ecosystem was carried out in 2014 as part of the Great Elephant Census (Mduma et al., 2014) giving an estimate of 1,428 elephants. This replaces a comparable estimate of 2,116 from 2002. However, there was another aerial total count in 2010 which gave a surprisingly high estimate of 3,069 (Kiambi et al., 2012). There were high levels of illegal killing in the Mara ecosystem, which peaked in 2012 (Poole et al., 2016). Elephants move between the Masai Mara and Serengeti National Park in Tanzania (Poole et al., 2016).
The elephants in the TransMara forests to the west of the Masai Mara have come under severe pressure as a result of deforestation and their range has reduced. It is now guessed that there are only 100 elephants in the area (Sitati, pers. comm., 2016) compared to an informed guess of 513 ± 49 from a dung count carried out in 2007 (Sitati & Bitok, 2007). This new informed guess replaces one of 200 ± 139 from 1997 (Wamukoya et al., 1997).
There is no new information on elephant numbers from the Mau Forest Complex to the north of the Masai Mara and a guess of 1,003 from the early 1990s has been retained but its reliability degraded due to age (Njumbi et al., 1995). It is likely that there has been a significant reduction in elephant numbers in this area, due to parts of the forest being converted to agriculture.
An aerial total count of the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem was carried out in 2012 which gave an estimate of 6,365 elephants (Ngene et al., 2013a). This replaces another total count estimate of 5,447 from 2002 (Omondi et al., 2002a), although the population estimate had risen to 7,415 in 2008 (Litoroh et al., 2010). The decline between 2008 and 2012 was associated with high reported poaching levels from 2008 to 2014 as well as a drought in 2009 (Ngene et al., 2013a). A combined total and sample count was carried out as part of the Great Elephant Census in 2015, giving an estimate of 7,134 ± 786 (Chase et al., 2014b). However, this survey differed both in methodology and area from previous surveys of the ecosystem, so is not directly comparable.
The old estimate for Loroki Forest, which is part of the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem, has been replaced by a other guess of zero (Thouless, pers comm., 2016) since most of the elephants present in the forest in the dry season would probably have been counted in the wet season surveys of surrounding areas.
Range expansion has taken place in the north-east of the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem, linked to the development of community based conservation and the recovery of elephants from the poaching of the 1970s to 1980s, which eliminated them from the area (Douglas-Hamilton, pers. comm., 2016b).
A dung count was carried out of Mt Marsabit in 2014, giving an estimate of 100 (72–139) elephants (Kiambi et al., 2014). This replaces an informed guess of 150 (Omondi, pers. comm., 2006). Eighty six elephants were counted in an aerial total count in 2012 (Ngene et al., 2013a) and 55 were seen in an aerial total count carried out as part of the Great Elephant Census in 2015 (Chase et al., 2016).
An aerial total count was carried out of the core of the Meru ecosystem in 2015 as part of the Great Elephant Census, giving an estimate of 659 animals (Chase et al., 2016). This replaces an estimate of 377 from an aerial total survey in 2002 (Omondi et al., 2002c) although an aerial total count in 2007 gave a total of 747 elephants (Mwangi et al., 2007). It is unlikely that there are significant numbers of elephants left in Kora National Park and Rahole National Reserve but there is a new guess of zero (Kiambi, 2016) and an estimate of 27 from 2007 (Mwangi et al., 2007) for these areas.
No detailed survey of the Mt Kenya National Park and Forest Reserve has been carried out since the dung counts carried out by Vanleeuwe (2004) which gave an estimate of 2,911 ± 640. This figure is being retained, in preference to a survey from 2009 (Ngoru et al., 2009), which was probably an over-estimate since reconnaissance data was analysed as line transect data. There has never been a full survey of the Aberdares National Park and the surrounding forests, including the Kipipiri Forest Reserve and the combined estimate of 3,553 from the AESR 2007 has been retained (Bitok & Kones, 2005) although this is also likely to be an over-estimate for the same reason as the 2009 Mt Kenya survey.
An aerial total count of the small fenced population of elephants in the Mwea National Reserve was carried out as part of the Great Elephant Census in 2016, giving an estimate of 71 elephants (Chase et al., 2016), replacing a ground count estimate of 55 from 1998 (Managene & Musoki, 1998). Another aerial total count in 2012 found 90 elephants (Ngene et al., 2012).
There are a number of small coastal elephant populations, which are difficult to count because they inhabit densely forested areas. An aerial total countof Shimba Hills National Reserve, Mkongani Forest Reserve and Mwaluganje Elephant Sanctuary was carried out in 2012, giving an estimate of 274 individuals (Ngene & Mukeka, 2012). This replaces an estimate of 649 ± 151 from a dung count carried out in 2002 (Litoroh, 2002a). One hundred and fifty elephants were translocated out of the Shimba Hills to Tsavo NP after the 2002 survey (Pinter-Wollman et al., 2009).
The Arabuko-Sokoke Forest Reserve is now fenced. The old estimate of 184 ± 43 from a dung count carried out in 2002 has been retained but degraded due to age (Litoroh, 2002b).
A small population of elephants lives in Lamu District along the lower reaches of the Tana River and between the river and the Somali border. An aerial total count was carried out as part of the Great Elephant Census in 2015 (Chase et al., 2016) and 60 elephants were counted. However, it is difficult to count eleph-ants in thick woodland, so there may be more elephants here. This replaces a series of guesses amounting to 182 elephants (Knocker, pers. comm., 2003, 2005; Litoroh, pers. comm., 2003). At least one elephant has moved from this area to just across the border in Somalia (Douglas-Hamilton, pers. comm., 2016a).
A total aerial count was carried out of the Kerio Valley, and the Nasalot and South Turkana National Reserves in western Kenya in 2015 (Chase et al., 2016). Three hundred and eleven elephants were seen in the Kerio Valley and 351 in South Turkana (total 662). This replaces an estimate of 490 for the whole area in 2002 (Omondi et al., 2002b). Another total aerial count in 2010 gave an estimate of 362 elephants (Edebe et al., 2010). Since the area between South Turkana NR and the Kerio Valley is heavily settled, and no elephants have been seen here in recent surveys, it has been changed to possible range.
No systematic surveys have been carried out in the Mt Elgon forests bordering Uganda since the last update. However there are currently thought to be about 200 elephants (Redmond, 2015), compared to a guess of 139 from 2002 (Bitok, pers. comm., 2002).