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12-linear_model3.Rmd
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# Linear model 3
## Learning goals
- Linear model with one multi-level categorical predictor (One-way ANOVA).
- Linear model with multiple categorical predictors (N-way ANOVA).
## Load packages and set plotting theme
```{r, message=FALSE}
library("knitr") # for knitting RMarkdown
library("kableExtra") # for making nice tables
library("janitor") # for cleaning column names
library("broom") # for tidying up linear models
library("car") # for running ANOVAs
library("afex") # also for running ANOVAs
library("emmeans") # for calculating constrasts
library("tidyverse") # for wrangling, plotting, etc.
```
```{r}
theme_set(theme_classic() + #set the theme
theme(text = element_text(size = 20))) #set the default text size
# these options here change the formatting of how comments are rendered
opts_chunk$set(comment = "",
fig.show = "hold")
# suppress grouping warnings
options(dplyr.summarise.inform = F)
```
## Load data sets
```{r, message=F, warning=FALSE}
df.poker = read_csv("data/poker.csv") %>%
mutate(skill = factor(skill,
levels = 1:2,
labels = c("expert", "average")),
skill = fct_relevel(skill, "average", "expert"),
hand = factor(hand,
levels = 1:3,
labels = c("bad", "neutral", "good")),
limit = factor(limit,
levels = 1:2,
labels = c("fixed", "none")),
participant = 1:n()) %>%
select(participant, everything())
```
Selection of the data:
```{r}
df.poker %>%
group_by(skill, hand, limit) %>%
filter(row_number() < 3) %>%
head(10) %>%
kable(digits = 2) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = "striped",
full_width = F)
```
## One-way ANOVA
### Visualization
```{r}
df.poker %>%
ggplot(mapping = aes(x = hand,
y = balance,
fill = hand)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.2,
position = position_jitter(height = 0, width = 0.1)) +
stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot",
geom = "linerange",
linewidth = 1) +
stat_summary(fun = "mean",
geom = "point",
shape = 21,
size = 4) +
labs(y = "final balance (in Euros)") +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
theme(legend.position = "none")
```
### Model fitting
We pass the result of the `lm()` function to `anova()` to calculate an analysis of variance like so:
```{r}
lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = df.poker) %>%
anova()
```
### Hypothesis test
The F-test reported by the ANOVA compares the fitted model with a compact model that only predicts the grand mean:
```{r}
# fit the models
fit_c = lm(formula = balance ~ 1, data = df.poker)
fit_a = lm(formula = balance ~ hand, data = df.poker)
# compare via F-test
anova(fit_c, fit_a)
```
### Visualize the model's predictions
Here is the model prediction of the compact model:
```{r}
set.seed(1)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = 1 + runif(n(), min = -0.25, max = 0.25))
df.augment = fit_c %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
bind_cols(df.plot %>%
select(hand, hand_jitter))
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
fill = hand)) +
geom_hline(yintercept = mean(df.poker$balance)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
geom_segment(data = df.augment,
mapping = aes(xend = hand_jitter,
yend = fitted),
alpha = 0.2) +
labs(y = "balance") +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.text.x = element_blank(),
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
> Note that since we have a categorical variable here, we don't really have a continuous x-axis. I've just jittered the values so it's easier to show the residuals.
And here is the prediction of the augmented model (which predicts different means for each group).
```{r}
set.seed(1)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = hand %>% as.numeric(),
hand_jitter = hand_jitter + runif(n(), min = -0.4, max = 0.4))
df.tidy = fit_a %>%
tidy() %>%
select(where(is.numeric)) %>%
mutate(across(.fns = ~ round(., digits = 2)))
df.augment = fit_a %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
bind_cols(df.plot %>%
select(hand_jitter))
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
color = hand)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
mapping = aes(x = 0.6,
xend = 1.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1]),
color = "red",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 1.6,
xend = 2.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[2],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[2]),
color = "orange",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 2.6,
xend = 3.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[3],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[3]),
color = "green",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = df.augment,
aes(xend = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
yend = fitted),
alpha = 0.3) +
labs(y = "balance") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:3, labels = c("bad", "neutral", "good")) +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
The vertical lines illustrate the residual sum of squares.
We can illustrate the model sum of squares like so:
```{r}
set.seed(1)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = hand %>% as.numeric(),
hand_jitter = hand_jitter + runif(n(), min = -0.4, max = 0.4)) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
mutate(mean_group = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance))
df.means = df.poker %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
summarize(mean = mean(balance)) %>%
pivot_wider(names_from = hand,
values_from = mean)
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = mean_group,
color = hand)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
mapping = aes(x = 0.6,
xend = 1.4,
y = df.means$bad,
yend = df.means$bad),
color = "red",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
mapping = aes(x = 1.6,
xend = 2.4,
y = df.means$neutral,
yend = df.means$neutral),
color = "orange",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
mapping = aes(x = 2.6,
xend = 3.4,
y = df.means$good,
yend = df.means$good),
color = "green",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(mapping = aes(xend = hand_jitter,
y = mean_group,
yend = mean_grand),
alpha = 0.3) +
geom_hline(yintercept = mean(df.poker$balance),
size = 1) +
labs(y = "balance") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:3, labels = c("bad", "neutral", "good")) +
scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(0, 10, 20), labels = c(0, 10, 20), limits = c(0, 25)) +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
This captures the variance in the data that is accounted for by the `hand` variable.
Just for kicks, let's calculate our cherished proportion of reduction in error PRE:
```{r}
df.c = fit_c %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
summarize(sse = sum(resid^2) %>% round)
df.a = fit_a %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
summarize(sse = sum(resid^2) %>% round)
pre = 1 - df.a$sse/df.c$sse
print(pre %>% round(2))
```
Note that this is the same as the $R^2$ for the augmented model:
```{r}
fit_a %>%
summary()
```
### Dummy coding
Let's check that we understand how dummy-coding works for a variable with more than 2 levels:
```{r}
# dummy code the hand variable
df.poker = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_neutral = ifelse(hand == "neutral", 1, 0),
hand_good = ifelse(hand == "good", 1, 0))
# show the dummy coded variables
df.poker %>%
select(participant, contains("hand"), balance) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
top_n(3) %>%
head(10) %>%
kable(digits = 3) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = "striped",
full_width = F)
# fit the model
fit.tmp = lm(balance ~ 1 + hand_neutral + hand_good, df.poker)
# show the model summary
fit.tmp %>%
summary()
```
Here, I've directly put the dummy-coded variables as predictors into the `lm()`. We get the same model as if we used the `hand` variable instead.
### Follow up questions
Here are some follow up questions we may ask about the data.
Are bad hands different from neutral hands?
```{r}
df.poker %>%
filter(hand %in% c("bad", "neutral")) %>%
lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = .) %>%
summary()
```
Are neutral hands different from good hands?
```{r}
df.poker %>%
filter(hand %in% c("neutral", "good")) %>%
lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = .) %>%
summary()
```
Doing the same thing by recoding our hand factor and taking "neutral" to be the reference category:
```{r}
df.poker %>%
mutate(hand = fct_relevel(hand, "neutral")) %>%
lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = .) %>%
summary()
```
### Variance decomposition
Let's first run the model
```{r}
fit = lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = df.poker)
fit %>%
anova()
```
#### Calculate sums of squares
And then let's make sure that we understand how the variance is broken down:
```{r}
df.poker %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
mutate(mean_group = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
summarize(variance_total = sum((balance - mean_grand)^2),
variance_model = sum((mean_group - mean_grand)^2),
variance_residual = variance_total - variance_model)
```
#### Visualize model predictions
##### Total variance
```{r}
set.seed(1)
fit_c = lm(formula = balance ~ 1,
data = df.poker)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = 1 + runif(n(), min = -0.25, max = 0.25))
df.augment = fit_c %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
bind_cols(df.plot %>% select(hand, hand_jitter))
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
fill = hand)) +
geom_hline(yintercept = mean(df.poker$balance)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.5) +
geom_segment(data = df.augment,
aes(xend = hand_jitter,
yend = fitted),
alpha = 0.2) +
labs(y = "balance") +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.text.x = element_blank(),
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
##### Model variance
```{r}
set.seed(1)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = hand %>% as.numeric(),
hand_jitter = hand_jitter + runif(n(), min = -0.4, max = 0.4)) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
mutate(mean_group = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance))
df.means = df.poker %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
summarize(mean = mean(balance)) %>%
pivot_wider(names_from = hand,
values_from = mean)
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = mean_group,
color = hand)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 0.6,
xend = 1.4,
y = df.means$bad,
yend = df.means$bad),
color = "red",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 1.6,
xend = 2.4,
y = df.means$neutral,
yend = df.means$neutral),
color = "orange",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 2.6,
xend = 3.4,
y = df.means$good,
yend = df.means$good),
color = "green",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(aes(xend = hand_jitter,
y = mean_group,
yend = mean_grand),
alpha = 0.3) +
geom_hline(yintercept = mean(df.poker$balance),
size = 1) +
labs(y = "balance") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:3, labels = c("bad", "neutral", "good")) +
scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(0, 10, 20), labels = c(0, 10, 20), limits = c(0, 25)) +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
##### Residual variance
```{r}
set.seed(1)
fit_a = lm(formula = balance ~ hand,
data = df.poker)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(hand_jitter = hand %>% as.numeric(),
hand_jitter = hand_jitter + runif(n(), min = -0.4, max = 0.4))
df.tidy = fit_a %>%
tidy() %>%
select(where(is.numeric)) %>%
mutate(across(.fns = ~ round(., digits = 2)))
df.augment = fit_a %>%
augment() %>%
clean_names() %>%
bind_cols(df.plot %>% select(hand_jitter))
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
color = hand)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 0.6,
xend = 1.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1]),
color = "red",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 1.6,
xend = 2.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[2],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[2]),
color = "orange",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 2.6,
xend = 3.4,
y = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[3],
yend = df.tidy$estimate[1] + df.tidy$estimate[3]),
color = "green",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = df.augment,
aes(xend = hand_jitter,
y = balance,
yend = fitted),
alpha = 0.3) +
labs(y = "balance") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:3, labels = c("bad", "neutral", "good")) +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
## Two-way ANOVA
Now let's take a look at a case where we have multiple categorical predictors.
### Visualization
Let's look at the overall effect of skill:
```{r}
ggplot(data = df.poker,
mapping = aes(x = skill,
y = balance)) +
geom_point(position = position_jitter(width = 0.2,
height = 0),
alpha = 0.2) +
stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot",
geom = "linerange",
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
stat_summary(fun = "mean",
geom = "point",
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9),
aes(shape = skill),
size = 3,
fill = "black") +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(21, 22)) +
guides(shape = F)
```
And now let's take a look at the means for the full the 3 (hand) x 2 (skill) design:
```{r}
ggplot(data = df.poker,
mapping = aes(x = hand,
y = balance,
group = skill,
fill = hand)) +
geom_point(position = position_jitterdodge(jitter.width = 0.3,
jitter.height = 0,
dodge.width = 0.9),
alpha = 0.2) +
stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot",
geom = "linerange",
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
stat_summary(fun = "mean",
geom = "point",
aes(shape = skill),
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9),
size = 3) +
scale_fill_manual(values = c("red", "orange", "green")) +
scale_shape_manual(values = c(21, 22)) +
guides(fill = F)
```
### Model fitting
For N-way ANOVAs, we need to be careful about what sums of squares we are using. The standard (based on the SPSS output) is to use type III sums of squares. We set this up in the following way:
```{r}
lm(formula = balance ~ hand * skill,
data = df.poker,
contrasts = list(hand = "contr.sum",
skill = "contr.sum")) %>%
Anova(type = 3)
```
So, we fit our linear model, but set the contrasts to "contr.sum" (which yields effect coding instead of dummy coding), and then specify the desired type of sums of squares in the `Anova()` function call.
Alternatively, we could use the `afex` package and specify the ANOVA like so:
```{r}
aov_ez(id = "participant",
dv = "balance",
data = df.poker,
between = c("hand", "skill")
)
```
The `afex` package uses effect coding and type 3 sums of squares by default.
### Interpreting interactions
Code I've used to generate the different plots in the competition:
```{r}
set.seed(1)
b0 = 15
nsamples = 30
sd = 5
# simple effect of condition
b1 = 10
b2 = 1
b1_2 = 1
# two simple effects
# b1 = 5
# b2 = -5
# b1_2 = 0
# interaction effect
# b1 = 10
# b2 = 10
# b1_2 = -20
# interaction and simple effect
# b1 = 10
# b2 = 0
# b1_2 = -20
# all three
# b1 = 2
# b2 = 2
# b1_2 = 10
df.data = tibble(
condition = rep(c(0, 1), each = nsamples),
treatment = rep(c(0, 1), nsamples),
rating = b0 + b1 * condition + b2 * treatment + (b1_2 * condition * treatment) + rnorm(nsamples, sd = sd)) %>%
mutate(condition = factor(condition, labels = c("A", "B")),
treatment = factor(treatment, labels = c("1", "2")))
ggplot(df.data,
aes(x = condition,
y = rating,
group = treatment,
fill = treatment)) +
stat_summary(fun = "mean",
geom = "bar",
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot",
geom = "linerange",
size = 1,
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set1")
```
And here is one specific example. Let's generate the data first:
```{r}
# make example reproducible
set.seed(1)
# set parameters
nsamples = 30
b0 = 15
b1 = 10 # simple effect of condition
b2 = 0 # simple effect of treatment
b1_2 = -20 # interaction effect
sd = 5
# generate data
df.data = tibble(
condition = rep(c(0, 1), each = nsamples),
treatment = rep(c(0, 1), nsamples),
rating = b0 +
b1 * condition +
b2 * treatment + (b1_2 * condition * treatment) +
rnorm(nsamples, sd = sd)) %>%
mutate(condition = factor(condition, labels = c("A", "B")),
treatment = factor(treatment, labels = c("1", "2")))
```
Show part of the generated data frame:
```{r}
# show data frame
df.data %>%
group_by(condition, treatment) %>%
filter(row_number() < 3) %>%
ungroup() %>%
kable(digits = 2) %>%
kable_styling(bootstrap_options = "striped",
full_width = F)
```
Plot the data:
```{r}
# plot data
ggplot(df.data,
aes(x = condition,
y = rating,
group = treatment,
fill = treatment)) +
stat_summary(fun = "mean",
geom = "bar",
color = "black",
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
stat_summary(fun.data = "mean_cl_boot",
geom = "linerange",
size = 1,
position = position_dodge(0.9)) +
scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set1")
```
And check whether we can successfully infer the parameters that we used to generate the data:
```{r}
# infer parameters
lm(formula = rating ~ 1 + condition + treatment + condition:treatment,
data = df.data) %>%
summary()
```
### Variance decomposition
Let's fit the model first:
```{r}
fit = lm(formula = balance ~ hand * skill,
data = df.poker)
fit %>%
anova()
```
#### Calculate sums of squares
```{r}
df.poker %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(skill) %>%
mutate(mean_skill = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
mutate(mean_hand = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
summarize(variance_total = sum((balance - mean_grand)^2),
variance_skill = sum((mean_skill - mean_grand)^2),
variance_hand = sum((mean_hand - mean_grand)^2),
variance_residual = variance_total - variance_skill - variance_hand)
```
#### Visualize model predictions
##### `Skill` factor
```{r}
set.seed(1)
df.plot = df.poker %>%
mutate(skill_jitter = skill %>% as.numeric(),
skill_jitter = skill_jitter + runif(n(), min = -0.4, max = 0.4)) %>%
group_by(skill) %>%
mutate(mean_group = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance))
df.means = df.poker %>%
group_by(skill) %>%
summarize(mean = mean(balance)) %>%
pivot_wider(names_from = skill,
values_from = mean)
ggplot(data = df.plot,
mapping = aes(x = skill_jitter,
y = mean_group,
color = skill)) +
geom_point(alpha = 0.8) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 0.6,
xend = 1.4,
y = df.means$average,
yend = df.means$average),
color = "black",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(data = NULL,
aes(x = 1.6,
xend = 2.4,
y = df.means$expert,
yend = df.means$expert),
color = "gray50",
size = 1) +
geom_segment(aes(xend = skill_jitter,
y = mean_group,
yend = mean_grand),
alpha = 0.3) +
geom_hline(yintercept = mean(df.poker$balance),
size = 1) +
labs(y = "balance") +
scale_color_manual(values = c("black", "gray50")) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:2, labels = c("average", "expert")) +
scale_y_continuous(breaks = c(0, 10, 20), labels = c(0, 10, 20), limits = c(0, 25)) +
theme(legend.position = "none",
axis.title.x = element_blank())
```
## Two-way ANOVA (with interaction)
Let's fit a two-way ANOVA with the interaction term.
```{r}
fit = lm(formula = balance ~ hand * skill, data = df.poker)
fit %>%
anova()
```
And let's compute how the the sums of squares are decomposed:
```{r}
df.poker %>%
mutate(mean_grand = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(skill) %>%
mutate(mean_skill = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(hand) %>%
mutate(mean_hand = mean(balance)) %>%
group_by(hand, skill) %>%
mutate(mean_hand_skill = mean(balance)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
summarize(variance_total = sum((balance - mean_grand)^2),
variance_skill = sum((mean_skill - mean_grand)^2),
variance_hand = sum((mean_hand - mean_grand)^2),
variance_hand_skill = sum((mean_hand_skill - mean_skill - mean_hand +
mean_grand)^2),
variance_residual = variance_total - variance_skill - variance_hand -
variance_hand_skill)
```
## Additional resources
### Datacamp
- [Statistical modeling 1](https://www.datacamp.com/courses/statistical-modeling-in-r-part-1)
- [Statistical modeling 2](https://www.datacamp.com/courses/statistical-modeling-in-r-part-2)
- [Correlation and regression](https://www.datacamp.com/courses/correlation-and-regression)
### Misc
- [Explanation of different types of sums of squares](https://mcfromnz.wordpress.com/2011/03/02/anova-type-iiiiii-ss-explained/)
- [Blog posts on marginal effects](https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05/20/marginalia/)
## Session info
Information about this R session including which version of R was used, and what packages were loaded.
```{r session}
sessionInfo()
```