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第三问.txt
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时间序列模型评价:
r$> predictRouteAccess("IS")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9999999 0.8040932 1.195907 0.7003864 1.299613
2023.447 0.9999999 0.7613539 1.238646 0.6350223 1.364977
r$> predictRouteAccess("MG")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.99858 0.6152875 1.381873 0.4123847 1.584775
2023.447 0.99858 0.5843558 1.412804 0.3650788 1.632081
r$> predictRouteAccess("SQ")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.8390655 0.3137512 1.364380 0.03566657 1.642464
2023.447 0.8390655 0.3062839 1.371847 0.02424639 1.653885
r$> predictRouteAccess("VA")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9839546 0.6283205 1.339589 0.4400592 1.527850
2023.447 0.9839546 0.6154420 1.352467 0.4203632 1.547546
r$> predictRouteAccess("YL")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9465966 0.3818258 1.511367 0.08285424 1.810339
2023.447 0.9465966 0.3538151 1.539378 0.04001553 1.853178
r$> predictRouteAccess("DR")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9996784 0.5669626 1.432394 0.3378966 1.661460
2023.447 0.9996784 0.5138069 1.485550 0.2566020 1.742755
r$> predictRouteAccess("JK")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9999886 0.5664093 1.433568 0.3368862 1.663091
2023.447 0.9999886 0.4953314 1.504646 0.2281820 1.771795
r$> predictRouteAccess("QO")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9999766 0.5973098 1.402643 0.3841509 1.615802
2023.447 0.9999766 0.5260886 1.473865 0.2752274 1.724726
r$> predictRouteAccess("UO")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9998809 0.5605975 1.439164 0.3280549 1.671707
2023.447 0.9998809 0.5041651 1.495597 0.2417490 1.758013
r$> predictRouteAccess("YW")
Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
2023.443 0.9975979 0.5250884 1.470107 0.274957 1.720239
2023.447 0.9975979 0.4735423 1.521654 0.196124 1.799072
线性回归模型评价:
Call:
glm(formula = PCS ~ Year + Month + Day + Delivering + Receiving,
data = attachment2)
Deviance Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-205.30 -58.90 -24.62 26.36 716.92
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -1.163e+04 9.647e+02 -12.053 < 2e-16 ***
Year 5.799e+00 4.770e-01 12.157 < 2e-16 ***
Month 4.065e-01 1.515e-01 2.684 0.007285 **
Day -1.449e-01 4.704e-02 -3.079 0.002075 **
DeliveringC -7.432e+01 4.051e+00 -18.345 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringD -5.247e+01 3.989e+00 -13.154 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringE -2.537e+01 5.361e+00 -4.733 2.22e-06 ***
DeliveringG 3.617e+01 3.384e+00 10.689 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringH -2.352e+01 4.128e+00 -5.698 1.22e-08 ***
DeliveringI -2.632e+00 4.409e+00 -0.597 0.550530
DeliveringJ 5.877e+00 4.036e+00 1.456 0.145389
DeliveringK 1.816e+01 4.154e+00 4.370 1.24e-05 ***
DeliveringL 9.132e+00 3.494e+00 2.614 0.008957 **
DeliveringM -5.661e+01 3.868e+00 -14.635 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringN -5.331e+01 4.006e+00 -13.309 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringO 2.755e+01 3.896e+00 7.071 1.55e-12 ***
DeliveringP 3.634e+01 5.595e+00 6.495 8.40e-11 ***
DeliveringQ -5.214e+01 3.809e+00 -13.690 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringR 3.084e+00 3.655e+00 0.844 0.398876
DeliveringS -2.693e+01 3.713e+00 -7.254 4.10e-13 ***
DeliveringU -7.316e+01 3.995e+00 -18.312 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringV 2.680e+01 3.585e+00 7.476 7.74e-14 ***
DeliveringW 6.704e+01 4.362e+00 15.368 < 2e-16 ***
DeliveringX -1.343e+01 3.988e+00 -3.366 0.000763 ***
DeliveringY -1.722e+01 4.379e+00 -3.933 8.40e-05 ***
ReceivingC -2.252e+01 3.569e+00 -6.312 2.78e-10 ***
ReceivingD -4.260e+01 3.465e+00 -12.294 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingE -1.124e+01 4.161e+00 -2.701 0.006920 **
ReceivingF -1.554e+01 4.974e+00 -3.123 0.001790 **
ReceivingG 3.709e+01 2.674e+00 13.871 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingH -1.333e+01 3.590e+00 -3.713 0.000205 ***
ReceivingI 4.851e+01 4.140e+00 11.716 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingJ 2.426e+01 3.442e+00 7.047 1.85e-12 ***
ReceivingK 3.184e+01 3.637e+00 8.756 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingL 2.110e+01 2.834e+00 7.446 9.76e-14 ***
ReceivingM 1.902e+01 3.112e+00 6.111 9.99e-10 ***
ReceivingN -1.523e+01 2.905e+00 -5.243 1.58e-07 ***
ReceivingO 2.526e+00 2.919e+00 0.866 0.386766
ReceivingP -3.279e+01 4.885e+00 -6.713 1.93e-11 ***
ReceivingQ -2.577e+01 3.047e+00 -8.457 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingR 1.473e+00 3.040e+00 0.485 0.627955
ReceivingS -1.351e+01 4.132e+00 -3.269 0.001079 **
ReceivingU 5.070e+01 4.295e+00 11.805 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingV 8.751e+01 2.756e+00 31.754 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingW 9.121e+01 3.762e+00 24.246 < 2e-16 ***
ReceivingX 6.264e+00 3.371e+00 1.858 0.063138 .
ReceivingY 2.027e+01 4.429e+00 4.577 4.73e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
(Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 9687.277)
Null deviance: 651734205 on 56777 degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 549568898 on 56731 degrees of freedom
AIC: 682319
Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2
c("1" = 86.1872080303179, "2" = 82.8028937441156, "3" = 49.6313231832999,
"4" = 129.130227012126, "5" = 106.204208876691, "6" = 51.1849530331128,
"7" = 139.904715092109, "8" = 52.5719697721731, "9" = 31.5513154199586,
"10" = 176.169122120441)
能 86
能 82
否
能 129
否
能 51
能 140
能 53
能 32
能 176