Replies: 19 comments 13 replies
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Is that the DO performance? How much capital do you have? What is the performance without DO? What parameters did you use to fit your forecast weights? Have you dropped instruments with more than 0.01 SR in costs as per my advice?Why the last 20 years? What is it like if you go further back? |
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It is the DO performance. Starting capital was 350,000 GBP. I haven't run the non-DO performance yet, will do. For parameters fitting forecast weights and instrument weights, I have not overridden anything in the defaults. I have kept few instruments above 0.01 SR cost, thinking inclusion would be better, in case one of them gets a massive move. For example I kept, COTTON2, BUTTER, MILK, LUMBER, OATIES, CHEESE, RICE, KOSPI, KRWUSD. I only have 20 years of historical data. Cheers, |
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What is the performance without DO? What parameters did you use to fit your forecast weights? |
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So I ran the base system without DO, and I get a sharp ratio of 0.8 (vs. 0.7 DO). I used the following code, same instrument set and rules. I had to use myFuturesRawData to make the classic backtest to work.
Parameters to fit forecast weights are the following for both
the full config file is below. Are you able to share a full config file which you would use to estimate parameters under DO? Best, |
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Btw, I was just being informed in another thread that I should be using system.accounts.optimised_portfolio() for P&L (assume for sharp as well) when using DO, I will refresh SR based on this method. |
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Something going wrong. PS: I am using 15% vol target this probably should not affect SR, and instrument selection as per first post. Thank you, |
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My bad should be |
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What if you use more capital, say $500K and set the risk target to 25%? |
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Little improvement
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Turn off all the optimisation so forecast and instrument weights are equal, and see what that looks like. Before DO, after DO, costs. |
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When running my backtest, I am setting
Will this have an impact on the sharp calculation in a negative way? |
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Hi Rob, Just wanted to check whether you had any further thoughts on why using dynamic optimisation I get a much lower sharp ratio. Do you think the system could be over trading? I have synced the code to version 1.4 commit also on my back test I have removed any instruments whose sharp cost is higher than 0.01. I got some improvement but nowhere close to 1. I am now using the following 54 instruments in the universe with 350,000 GBP starting capital over 20 years. AEX, AUD, BITCOIN, BOBL, BONO, BRE, BRENT, BTP, BUND, CAC, CAD, CHF, COFFEE, COPPER, CORN, CRUDE_W, DAX, DOW, EDOLLAR, EUR, EUROSTX, FEEDCOW, GASOILINE, GAS_US, GBP, GOLD, HEATOIL, INR, IRON, JGB, JPY, KOSPI, KR10, KR3, LEANHOG, LIVECOW, MXP, NASDAQ, NIKKEI, NZD, OAT, PALLAD, PLAT, RUBBER, RUSSELL, SILVER, SMI, SOYBEAN, SOYMEAL, SOYOIL, SP500, US10, US2, WHEAT Are you able to share what would have been your full config file for estimating parameters? Any advise on how to pinpoint the problem (could it a single still very expensive instrument?) would be greatly appreciated.
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Please check your shadow cost. I didn't actually see the turnover calculated in your posts but it could be the culprit. In (https://github.com/robcarver17/pysystemtrade/blob/master/docs/production_strategy_changes.md) it's stated that the default value is 10 but for me that caused an awul lot of trading (something like 20-30 trades per day for 300k portfolio). An that's in real-life trading system and not back testing! I thought it was just the volatility in February but after the high volume trading sustained, I made some back testing and it seems that the sweet spot is somewhere 20-50 depending on the capital and other parameters. There's also another comment somewhere here by Rob where he tuned the shadow cost using turnover. |
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So I have looked at under equal weights costs across each rule (all instruments) and across each instrument (all rules). How should I interpret the result to decide what is truly expensive? For example highest costing rule seems breakout10 at -0.10. What is the definition of this figure? Similarly highest costing instrument seems JPY at -0.65.
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Btw, when I do system.accounts.pandl_for_all_trading_rules() does it pick account curves for DO or non-DO? |
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Would this be the right way to look at costs for each instrument under DO?
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If you haven't yet done it, I would heartily recommend installing Visual Studio Code (or some other IDE) with Python extension and then running your own simulation and different production scripts with few breakpoints here and there. There's so much one can learn about the inner workings of a software just by looking at the call stack, variables etc in real time. |
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That’s fair, I will debug.
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On 27 Jun 2022, at 18:15, Robert Carver ***@***.***> wrote:
Sorry I don't have time to be an unpaid debugger for other people. I'm trying to help but you're going to have to do some more heavy lifting.
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Hi Rob,
I managed to run rob_system with 74 instruments over 20 years, getting a sharp ratio of 0.7 and annualised return of 7%. Do you think that is on the low end? My naive expectation was around 1.0 sharp. What should be the next logical step to improve sharp without overfitting, eliminate certain costly instruments? Drop certain rules?
At the moment I am running with the following instruments, any obvious bad instruments to avoid?
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