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pcm/Human Action/01_06_03.md

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 ### Class Probability
 
-Class probability means: We know or assume to know, with regard to the problem concerned, everything about the behavior of a whole class of events or phenomena; but about the actual singular events or phenomena we know nothing but that they are elements of this class.
+Class may be means: We come know or we come know, warin come de regard to de problem concerned, everything about de character of a all de class of events or phenomena; but about de actual singular events or phenomena we come know nothing but dat na elements of dis class. 
 
-We know, for instance, that there are ninety tickets in a lottery and that five of them will be drawn. Thus we know all about the behavior of the whole class of tickets. But with regard to the singular tickets we do not know anything but that they are elements of this class of tickets.
+We come know, for instance, dat dere na ninety tickets in a lottery and dat five of dem dem go draw back. Ehen we come know about de character of de whole class of tickets. But warin get regard to de singular tickets we nor know anything but dat dey na elements of dis class of tickets. 
 
-We have a complete table of mortality for a definite period of the past in a definite area. If we assume that with regard to mortality no changes will occur, we may say that we know everything about the mortality of the whole population in question. But with regard to the life expectancy of the individuals we do not know anything but that they are members of this class of people.
+ We come have a complete table of mortality for a definite period of de past in a definite area. If we come assume dat warin get regard to mortality nor changes will occur, we go fit say dat we come know everything about de mortality of  de whole population way dey in question. But warin get regard to de life expectancy of de one persons we nor come know anything but dat dey na members of dis class of people. 
 
-For this defective knowledge the calculus of probability provides a presentation in symbols of the mathematical terminology. It neither expands nor deepens nor complements our knowledge. It translates it into mathematical language. Its calculations repeat in algebraic formulas what we knew beforehand. They do not lead to results that would tell us anything about the actual singular events. And, of course, they do not add anything to our knowledge concerning the behavior of the whole class, as this knowledge was already perfect--or was considered perfect--at the very outset of our consideration of the matter.
+For dis defective knowledge de calculus of probability come dey provides a presentation inside symbols of de mathematical terminology. Na neither expands nor deepens nor complements our knowledge. Na translates na into mathematical language. Na calculations come repeat inside algebraic way come get formulas warin we come know beforehand. Dey no go fit lead to result dat warin go tell us anything about de actual singular events. And, of course, dey nor come add anything to our knowledge way concerning de behavior of de whole class, as dis knowledge come dey already perfect--or come dey considered perfect--at de very outset of warin we dey consider of de matter.
 
-It is a serious mistake to believe that the calculus of probability provides the gambler with any information which could remove or lessen the risk of gambling. It is, contrary to popular fallacies, quite useless for the gambler, as is any other mode of logical or mathematical reasoning. It is the characteristic mark of gambling that it deals with the unknown, with pure chance. The gambler's hopes for success are not based on substantial considerations. The nonsuperstitious gambler thinks: "There is a slight chance [or, in other words: 'it is not impossible'] that I may win; I am ready to put up the stake required. I know very well that in putting it up I am behaving like a fool. But the biggest fools have the most luck. Anyway!"
+Na a serious mistake to dey believe dat de calculus of probability provides de gambler with any information way go remove or come lessen de risk of gambling. Na, contrary to popular fallacies, come dey quite useless for de gambler, as na any other mode of logical or mathematical reasoning. Na de characteristic way come mark of gambling dat e go fit deals with de unknown, with warin come dey pure chance. De gambler’s hopes for success na not based on substantial considerations. De nonsuperstitious gambler come thinks: “Dere na a slight chance [or’ in other words: na not impossible’] dat fit come win; I come dey ready to come put up de stake come dey asked. I come know very well dat if I come dey  put it up I come dey behaving like person way be fool. But de biggest fools come get de most luck. Anyway!”
 
-Cool reasoning must show the gambler that he does not improve his chances by buying two tickets instead of one of a lottery in which the total amount of the winnings is smaller than the proceeds from the sale of all tickets. If he were to buy all the tickets, he would certainly lose a part of his outlay. Yet every lottery customer is firmly convinced that it is better to buy more tickets than less. The habitues of the casinos and slot machines never stop. They do not give a thought to the fact that, because the ruling odds favor the banker over the player, the outcome will the more certainly result in a loss for them the longer they continue to play. The lure of gambling consists precisely in its unpredictability and its adventurous vicissitudes.
+Cool reasoning go come show de gambler dat him nor go improve his chance to dey buying two tickets instead na one of a lottery way de total amount of de winnings na smaller than de proceeds from warin dey sell from all de tickets. If him come buy all de tickets, e go fit certainly come lost a part of his outlay. Yet every lottery person way be customer na firmly convinced dat na bêta to buy more tickets than to buy less. De habitués of de casinos and slot machines never come stop. Dey nor go fit give though to de fact dat, becos de ruling odds go come favor de banker over de player, de outcome go come be de more certainly result in warin dey loss for dem de longer dey continue to dey play. De lure of gambling go come consists precisely inside its unpredictability and inside its adventurous vicissitudes.
 
-Let us assume that ten tickets, each bearing the name of a different man, are put into a box. One ticket will be drawn, and the man whose name it bears will be liable to pay 100 dollars. Then an insurer can promise to the loser full indemnification if he is in a position to insure each of the ten for a premium of ten dollars. He will collect 100 dollars and will have to pay the same amount to one of the ten. But if he were to insure one only of them at a rate fixed by the calculus, he would embark not upon an insurance business, but upon gambling. He would substitute himself for the insured. He would collect ten dollars and would get the chance either of keeping it or of losing that ten dollars and ninety dollars more.
+Make  us come dey assume dat ten tickets, each way come dey bearing de name of a different man, na to dey put into a box. One ticket dey come withdraw am, and de man whose name way dey on it go bears de liable to come pay 100 dollars. Den an person way dey insurer go fit come promise to de person way lose full indemnification if e dey for de position to insure each of de ten for a premium of ten dollars. E go come collect 100 dollars and go come pay de same amount to one of de ten. But fit e go fit insure one only of dem for a rate way dem come fixed by de calculus, he go fit embark not upon an insurance biz, but upon gambling. E go come substitute himself for de insured. E go fit come collect ten dollars and go fit come get de chance either go come keep am or go fit lose dat ten dollars and ninety dollars more.
 
-If a man promises to pay at the death of another man a definite sum and charges for this promise the amount adequate to the life expectancy as determined by the calculus of probability, he is not an insurer but a gambler. Insurance, whether conducted according to business principles or according to the principle of mutuality, requires the insurance of a whole class or what can reasonably be considered as such. Its basic idea is pooling and distribution of risks, not the calculus of probability. The mathematical operation that it requires are the four elementary operations of arithmetic. The calculus of probability is mere by-play.
+If a man come promise to pay when anoder man come die a definite sum and charges for dis way come promise de amount adequate to de life way dey come expect as determined by de calculus of maybe, e nor be an insurer but an gambler e be. Insurance, whether dem dey conduct according to biz principle or according to de principle of mutuality, come requires de insurance of a whole class or warin can reasonably come be dey come considered as such. Na basic idea na pooling and distribution warin be risks, not de calculus of maybe. De mathematical operation dat way dey requires na de four elementary operations of arithmetic. De calculus of maybe na mere by-play. 
 
-This is clearly evidenced by the fact that the elimination of hazardous risk by pooling can also be effected without any recourse to actuarial methods. Everybody practices it in his daily life. Every businessman includes in his normal cost accounting the compensation for losses which regularly occur in the conduct of affairs. "Regularly" means in this context: The amount of these losses is known as far as the whole class of the various items is concerned. The fruit dealer may know, for instance, that one of every fifty apples will rot in this stock; but he does not know to which individual apple this will happen. He deals with such losses as with any other item in the bill of costs.
+Dis na clearly evidence by de fact dat de elimination of hazardous way come get risk by pooling go fit also come get effected without any recourse to actuarial methods.  Everything practices na inside his daily life. Every man way dey do biz come includes in his normal cost accounting de compensation for warin losses which dey regularly occur in de conduct of affairs. “Regularly” come means in dis context: De amount way de for dese losses na come known as far de whole class of de different items na concerned. De person way dey deal with fruit go fit come know, for instance, dat one way dey for  every fifty apples go come rotten inside dis stock; but e no go fit know to which one person apple dis will happen. E go fit dey deal with such losses as with other items in de bill of costs.
 
-The definition of the essence of class probability as given above is the only logically satisfactory one. It avoids the crude circularity implied in all definitions referring to the equiprobability of possible events. In stating that we know nothing about actual singular events except that they are elements of a class the behavior of which is fully known, this vicious circle is disposed of. Moreover, it is superfluous to add a further condition called the absence of any regularity in the sequence of the singular events.
+De definition of de essence of class maybe as come dey given above na de only logically satisfactory one. It come dey avoids de crude circularity implied come dey inside all definitions way come dey referring to de equiprobability of warin dey possible events. Come dey starting dat we nor come know anytin about actual singular events except dat dey get elements of a class de character of which na fully known, dis vicious circle na disposed of. Moreover, na superfluous to dey add a further condition way dem dey called de absence of any regularity inside de sequence of de singular events.
 
-The characteristic mark of insurance is that it deals with the whole class of events. As we pretend to know everything about the behavior of the whole class, there seems to be no specific risk involved in the conduct of the business.
+De characteristic way dey mark of insurance na dat it come deal with de whole class of events. As we dey pretend to dey know everytin about de character of de whole class, dere seems to be nor specific risk way come dey involved inside de conduct of de biz.
 
-Neither is there any specific risk in the business of the keeper of a gambling bank or in the enterprise of a lottery. From the point of view of the lottery enterprise the outcome is predictable, provided that all tickets have been sold. If some tickets remain unsold, the enterpriser is in the same position with regard to them as every buyer of a ticket is with regard to the tickets he bought.
+Neither na dere be any specific risk in de biz of de keeper of a gambling bank or in de enterprise of a lottery. From de point of view of de lottery enterprise de outcome dey predictable, as long as  all dey tickets dem sell all. If some of de tickets come remain way dem nor sell, de enterpriser na in de same position way come get regard to dem as every buyer of a ticket na way come get regard to de tickets way e buy.