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fix rst formatting problems
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urbanophile committed Jan 7, 2025
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/Blog/demystifying_battery_technology.md
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Expand Up @@ -101,5 +101,5 @@ Although we briefly discuss other battery chemistries for context, lithium ion b

# References

* https://batteryuniversity.com/
* https://chem.libretexts.org/Courses/University_of_Arkansas_Little_Rock/Chem_1403%3A_General_Chemistry_2/Text/19%3A_Electron_Transfer_Reactions/19.03%3A_Electrochemical_Cells
* [Battery University](https://batteryuniversity.com/)
* [Basic description of battery chemistry](https://chem.libretexts.org/Courses/University_of_Arkansas_Little_Rock/Chem_1403%3A_General_Chemistry_2/Text/19%3A_Electron_Transfer_Reactions/19.03%3A_Electrochemical_Cells)
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion content/Blog/dwitter_simple.rst
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Expand Up @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ Two simple dweets

:date: 2024-02-29
:authors: Matt Gibson
.. :tags: graphics, javascript, demoscene
:tags: graphics, javascript, demoscene



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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion content/Blog/stable_django.rst
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Expand Up @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ How good is Django?

:date: 2024-03-31
:authors: Matt Gibson
.. :tags: django, dokuwiki, tools
:tags: django, dokuwiki, tools

.. raw:: HTML

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85 changes: 38 additions & 47 deletions content/Blog/time_series_skill_issue_tbh.md
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Expand Up @@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ Title: skill issue tbh: ml time series notes
Author: Matt Gibson
Date: 2024-04-18
Tags: statistics, machine learning, time series
Modified: 2025-01-07


Now and again I see people talking about foundation models for time series data. It's one of those things, like the puzzlement over the inability of deep learning models to outperform traditional models tabular data, that makes me think people don't grasp the generality of of tabular and time series data. Time series and tabular data are much more general than images, images and text data. In my opinion, much of the success of current methods relies on exploiting the structure of the data. The generality of these data type imho precludes finding such structure except in specific, limited cases e.g. speech recognition, weather data etc.
Expand All @@ -12,29 +13,32 @@ The M competitions have been very important in ML fore timeseries. Refs:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Makridakis_Competitions


Also reference data sets are available here: https://forecastingdata.org/
Also reference data sets for the competitions M* are [available here](https://forecastingdata.org/).

### trad approaches
## Approaches

20 Oct 2021
Do We Really Need Deep Learning Models for
Time Series Forecasting?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.02118.pdf
### usual suspects

- lightgbm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LightGBM
- xgboost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XGBoost

### deep space models
A classical approach for time series modelling in machine learning is Gaussian Processes:

S4: deep statespace models
https://srush.github.io/annotated-s4/
- The canonical reference is [gaussian process book](https://gaussianprocess.org/gpml/chapters/RW.pdf)
- An interesting application to solar energy is [Grouped Gaussian processes for solar power prediction](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10994-019-05808-z)

#### frequency methods

about ssm
https://huggingface.co/blog/lbourdois/get-on-the-ssm-train
- wavelets

reddit post about ssm:
https://old.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/s5hajb/r_the_annotated_s4_efficiently_modeling_long/
#### other models - HMMs, ensembles, etc

An interesting and somewhat controversial topic is the "self-tuning" prophet models developed by Facebook researchers Sean Taylor and Benjamin Lentham.

- [paper](http://lethalletham.com/ForecastingAtScale.pdf) Forecasting at Scale. THE AMERICAN STATISTICIAN Sean J. Taylor and Benjamin Letham
- [github](https://github.com/facebook/prophet)
- EOL for prophet package [blog post](https://medium.com/@cuongduong_35162/facebook-prophet-in-2023-and-beyond-c5086151c138)
- [a seed of the controversy](https://ryxcommar.com/2021/11/06/zillow-prophet-time-series-and-prices/)

### neural net approaches

Expand All @@ -60,51 +64,38 @@ resurrecting recurrent neural networks for long squences
https://openreview.net/pdf?id=M3Yd3QyRG4


### gaussian processes

- gaussian process book: https://gaussianprocess.org/gpml/chapters/RW.pdf
- Grouped Gaussian processes for solar power prediction https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10994-019-05808-z

### other models - HMMs, ensembles, etc

prophet model
THE AMERICAN STATISTICIAN
Forecasting at Scale
Sean J. Taylor and Benjamin Letham
http://lethalletham.com/ForecastingAtScale.pdf

https://github.com/facebook/prophet

https://medium.com/@cuongduong_35162/facebook-prophet-in-2023-and-beyond-c5086151c138
#### deep space models

20 Oct 2021
Do We Really Need Deep Learning Models for
Time Series Forecasting?
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.02118.pdf

### frequency methods

- wavelets
S4: deep statespace models
https://srush.github.io/annotated-s4/

### usual suspects

- lightgbm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LightGBM
- xgboost https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XGBoost
about ssm
https://huggingface.co/blog/lbourdois/get-on-the-ssm-train

### books

- Time Series Forecasting in Python Marco Peixeiro
reddit post about ssm:
https://old.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/s5hajb/r_the_annotated_s4_efficiently_modeling_long/


Python for Algorithmic Trading: From Idea to Cloud Deployment Paperback – 24 November 2020
by Yves Hilpisch (Author)
https://www.amazon.com.au/Python-Algorithmic-Trading-Cloud-Deployment/dp/149205335X/ref=srd_d_ssims_T2_d_sccl_2_5/356-5070353-2846925?pd_rd_w=Ppmna&content-id=amzn1.sym.18fa5695-611e-408b-9728-5579118370e4&pf_rd_p=18fa5695-611e-408b-9728-5579118370e4&pf_rd_r=040MT1XJP5XQ88HA3Y0A&pd_rd_wg=YwpNE&pd_rd_r=6441e172-f568-4a23-9c98-fc6e284d50ce&pd_rd_i=149205335X&psc=1

Practical Time Series Analysis: Prediction with Statistics and Machine Learning
https://www.amazon.com.au/Practical-Time-Analysis-Aileen-Nielsen/dp/1492041653


Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python: Explore industry-ready time series forecasting using modern machine learning and deep learning Paperback – 24 November 2022
by Manu Joseph (Author)
https://www.amazon.com.au/Modern-Time-Forecasting-Python-industry-ready/dp/1803246804/ref=pd_vtp_h_pd_vtp_h_d_sccl_3/356-5070353-2846925?pd_rd_w=SR6Mg&content-id=amzn1.sym.c3e67ad4-8c3b-4d61-8525-47091874fb48&pf_rd_p=c3e67ad4-8c3b-4d61-8525-47091874fb48&pf_rd_r=SKXN2J4TKC3MC2EMXDS8&pd_rd_wg=OQdXD&pd_rd_r=ecb8ff42-6e9d-4d73-91a2-7910d4fc26ce&pd_rd_i=1803246804&psc=1
## Reference material

### Books
Time series arise in so many application the literature about them is enormous, but the resources here are practically focused.

### classical / statistics stuff
- A very useful book for learning basic time series is by Robert Hyndman and co called ["Forecasting: Principles and Practice"](https://otexts.com/fpp3/advanced-reading.html)
- Any econometrics textbook will have a discussion of time series methods and/or it's cousin, panel data.
- [Time Series Forecasting in Python] by Marco Peixeiro
- [Python for Algorithmic Trading (2020) Yves Hilpisch](https://www.amazon.com.au/Python-Algorithmic-Trading-Cloud-Deployment/dp/149205335X/)
- [Practical Time Series Analysis: Prediction with Statistics and Machine Learning](https://www.amazon.com.au/Practical-Time-Analysis-Aileen-Nielsen/dp/1492041653)
- [Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python (2022) Manu Joseph](https://www.amazon.com.au/Modern-Time-Forecasting-Python-industry-ready/dp/1803246804/)

https://otexts.com/fpp3/advanced-reading.html
### Libraries
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/Blog/updating_website_thoughts.md
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Expand Up @@ -195,7 +195,7 @@ Now you can link inside a document like so:

# Pelican static website pros and cons

[reconsider pros and cons]({filename}/blog/updating_website_thoughts.md#pelican-static-website-pros-and-cons)
<!-- [reconsider pros and cons]({filename}/blog/updating_website_thoughts.md#pelican-static-website-pros-and-cons) -->
```
or in rst
```
Expand All @@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ or in rst
`(source 1) <https://jupyterlite.readthedocs.io/en/stable/reference/architecture.html>`_
```

and maybe it's time to [reconsider pros and cons]({filename}/blog/updating_website_thoughts.md#pelican-static-website-pros-and-cons).
and maybe it's time to reconsider pros and cons.

## How do I add images to my content?

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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions themes/my-basic/templates/category.html
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@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
{% extends "content_list.html" %}
{% extends "index.html" %}

{% block title %}{{ SITENAME|striptags }} - {{ category }} category{% endblock %}

{% block content_title %}
<h1>{{ category }}</h1>
<h2>Articles in the {{ category }} category</h2>
{% endblock %}

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